CFO Survey: CFOs Fear Impact of China Housing Bubble

Bubble with reflection of houses in it

Asian chief financial officers fear the impact of a housing bubble, and they’re worried it will hit the breaking point this year.

That is just one of the findings of the latest Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey, which polled CFOs from around the world, including Asia (with the exception of Japan).

About 70 percent of CFOs in Asia believe there is a real estate bubble in their country and the same number say a deflated real estate market would pose a medium or significant problem to the country’s economy.

Fuqua Professor Campbell R. Harvey, founding director of the survey, said the ramifications, if the CFOs are right, could be severe, particularly in China.

“If the real estate bubble were to burst in the world’s second largest economy – China – the reverberations across the globe would be massive,” Harvey said. “The risks in Latin America are also large. Brazil’s economy has stalled, which increases the likelihood that the bubble might burst. While Peru’s economic growth has remained strong, it is worrisome that even there, a bubble poses a threat.”

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新春问候

马逢伯乐驰千里,鹏过高天展万程。

值此马年新春佳节来临之际,杜克大学商学院东亚地区团队向各位校友、朋友、同仁致以最诚挚的新年问候。

感谢大家一直以来对我们工作的支持,祝愿大家新春快乐,身体健康,阖家幸福,马到成功!

Chinese New Year Greeting

在面试中做自己

Jason Yan我是Jason Yan, Duke Daytime MBA二年级学生,担任China Admissions Ambassador。

2014年悄然而至。年份一年一年的刷新,当你发觉以前科幻小说里才用到的年份不断走进日历的时候,就说明你是大人了。读商学院听上去就像是大人才会做的事,但即使在最好的商学院里,也有人不再拥有梦想与想象力。为我这段听上去缺乏逻辑的开篇加一个总结,就是读商学院应该是梦想的开始,而不是梦想的结束。下面转入正题。在这杜克大学第二轮MBA申请截止之际,和大家分享一些关于招生面试的建议。

第一,做自己。具体说来,就是表现真实的自我,放松,放自然,用聊天的方式与面试官沟通。申请商学院最重要的是合适。让面试官了解真实的你,彼此坦诚、透明的沟通既能够从内容上有助于面试官判断你和学校是不是彼此合适、同时也能从沟通的诚意与自信上打动面试官。

第二、讲话的逻辑。商学院招生面试毕竟不是朋友间聊天!面试时间有限、面试官与面试者背景差异较大、面试者自身的语言表达能力等等原因都可能导致面试过程不畅。基于此,我建议在自然、聊天式沟通的基础之上,回答问题要有逻辑,具体包括:一、确认你第一句话回答了问题。譬如“是”或“否”,“是什么”,“为什么”等等。而不是回答一开始就掉入了冗长的背景介绍或者细节描述之中。二、在段首段尾用引导词体现结构。譬如“我选择上一份工作是因为……,具体说来有三个原因,第一点……,第二点……,第三点……”或者“我的工作内容是……;工作的困难在于……;我学到了……”。

第三,熟悉你的材料。面试最大的目的是让面试官了解你。需要了解的内容其实大多都已经包括在essays和简历里。为了面试时有效沟通、流畅对话,面试者应当非常熟悉自己的essays和简历。对其中的细节、数字的使用能够做到言之有理、言之有据,以避免对自己的材料不甚熟悉、回答问题不畅而可能带来的误会。

商学院是风景,而不是终点站。有时候申请的过程更激动人心,而不是结果。但是,可以去更在意过程而不是结果的前提是各位已充分努力,没有遗憾。于是,请各位三问自己,对于这个面试我还有什么能准备的。务必不留遗憾,无悔于你的付出、你的牺牲、你的青春。

各位朋友好运!

分享一些我的“Random Things”:

1) I was born in Shaanxi Province, China. My grandparents are from Henan province and grandparents-in-law are from Sichuan province. So for all intents and purposes I am mixed-blood!

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What is the outlook in Asia for 2014?

cfo surveyWhat should we expect from the economy in Asia next year? Based on the reaction of 245 Asian CFOs who took part in the Duke University / CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey, the outlook is quite positive, notes Professor John Graham, director of the survey.

In the following video, Graham notes that China has solidified, while Japan is waiting for recent reforms to kick in, but overall the mood is on the upswing.

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A front row seat to China and the United States

DKU-Acad-Center

Architect’s rendering of the DKU Academic Center

We live in world marked by leadership deficits and global disruption. As a result of this, Fuqua’s strategy is to embed and connect in key regions around the world to prepare students to address global business challenges. The MMS: DKU program, which takes place in both on Duke campus in Durham, North Carolina and at Duke Kunshan University in China.

Jennifer Francis, Senior Associate Dean for Programs and an accounting professor at Fuqua, explains the importance and benefits of giving students this front row seat to the two most dynamic economies in the world.

How do you see a program like MMS: DKU shaping the student experience?

In a word: greatly. MMS: DKU is taught across two continents, with the ability for students to immerse in each culture and to learn about how business is done differently. We want students to spend enough time in each region so that they really are able to have a truly American, or Chinese, experience. Finally, we hope our students shape each other: we hope that our US students “host” our Chinese students when the students are in Durham, and we hope the reverse happens when our students are in China. By “host” I mean that our students show each other the best that their country offers in terms of experiences and perspectives.

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